Excerpts from
CNBC-TV18's interview with Nikhil Vora:
Q: What is your
verdict on the numbers?
A: It is perfectly fine
in terms of what our thought process was - in terms of the profitability
and the underlying growth of cigarettes. The numbers do not surprise us;
so we are comfortable with the numbers.
Q: What is your rating
on ITC at Rs 166?
A: We have a buy on the
stock that remains. I think near term uncertainty with regards with VAT
has been an overhang on ITC, but the fact is that the company has still
been able to grow in volumes and manufacture cigarettes around 7-8% over
the last seven to eight quarters. So, the ability to pass through now
will be far higher than what it has been historically.
Q: What sort of
earnings and price targets would you put out now on ITC, based on what
you have seen?
A: We have a price target
of Rs 210 on ITC and that remains. The earnings are still likely to grow
at around 10% in the current year, despite the VAT impact. So our
earnings estimates are slightly in contrast to the broad market
estimates. We think ITC is in a better position now to pass through the
VAT impact through price increases, which they have done in recent
times.
Q: What have you made
of plans to set up a strategic business unit, or SBU, for home and
personal care products? Are they diversifying interestingly enough?
A: I think it is a
brilliant move. The fact is that even if you look at the current
categories of non-cigarette FMCGs, the bleed has come down
significantly; they have reduced the bleed by around 500 bps in the
current year. The historic topline is starting to make money for ITC in
that business. They are growing that segment by 60% odd and getting into
HPC, the natural process for becoming a pure personal care or a consumer
product company. I am pretty impressed with the way the continuous
investments are happening in the company. So, it is a positive move.
Q: Any concern on
operating margins at all?
A: Not at all. If you
look at the margin structure in the current year, they have grown
universally across the board; cigarette margins have grown about 80 bps
in the current year itself, while overall margins have been stable. So,
I do not see any negativity in the numbers till last year. There maybe a
couple of quarters of slightly low returns due to the VAT. So I do not
think those are concern zones for investors who are willing to play out
on a longer term basis on ITC.